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Obama expected to sweep Clinton in Illinois

Last Updated Feb 2008


By Monroe Anderson

Special to the AFRO
                
Chicago—While Barack Obama trails rival Hillary Clinton in the national polls and in some of the big states going into Super Tuesday, it is matter-of-factly believed that Feb. 5  will to be the day he sweeps away Clinton in Illinois.

 

The latest polls place the Illinois senator with a two to one advantage over Clinton, a New York Senator, almost to no one's surprise in his home state. obamaillinoisweb.jpg


While the latest Gallup poll has Clinton leading Obama nationally 48 to 41 percent, a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll found that Obama had the support of 55 percent of likely Democratic voters in Illinois.  Clinton had only 24 percent.


Early ballots have been coming in at a record number,… 

 

That projected margin of victory matches the actual vote in the South Carolina primary eight days ago.


"Obama's got the momentum and the wind at his back after South Carolina," said Dick Simpson, professor of political science at the University of Illinois Chicago and a former Democratic Chicago alderman.


Obama is in the enviable position of commanding the support of a wide spectrum of his party's voters in Illinois, from independent to traditional Democrats, from young to old and from Black to brown to white.


Although Clinton was born and raised in a Chicago suburb, she has not lived in the state for more than three decades.

 

"Illinois is in love with Obama from the top to the bottom," said Robert T. Starks, professor of political science at Northeastern Illinois University and chairman of the Task Force for Black Political Empowerment.


"All the Democrats in the state of Illinois are supporting Barack Obama," Starks said.


Early ballots have been coming in at a record number, Starks said, about 60 percent of those votes between the ages of 18 and 40, which is the age group where Obama is strongest. Starks said that the Obama campaign has a volunteer unit in almost every college campus in the city and several colleges downstate.


"I've been impressed with the enthusiasm of young people, which seems to grow greater after each debate," Starks said.


"Obama has the unusual circumstance of having the support of the Daley machine and the reformers," Simpson said.

 

As a state senator, Obama earned a good reputation among independents in Illinois when he successfully carried through reform legislation while working with the late Illinois Sen. Paul Simon, Simpson said.

 

As a candidate for the U.S. Senate, Obama got the backing of Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley, Simpson noted.  Both men also share David Axelrod as their political consultant.


Obama is so popular in the Illinois that other candidates up for votes on Feb. 5 are hoping they will reap the benefit of his ability to attract new and young voters.

 

"They're hoping that everyone voting for Obama will drop down and vote for them for Congress or water commissione, whatever they're running for,” Simpson said


His political strength in his home state, particularly in the metropolitan Chicago area, even extends to two groups where polls say Clinton has either wrapped up or splits with the Illinois senator in other states–Hispanics and Black women.


"He'll do well with the Latino vote here," said Miguel del Valle, Chicago City Clerk and a former Illinois state senator.


Obama got the lion's share of the Latino votes when he ran for the U.S. Senate four years ago, del Valle said, pointing out that he outpaced a strong Hispanic contender, Gerry Chico, in the primary contest for the party's Senate nomination.


He said that Obama is popular among Illinois Hispanics because of his support for immigration reform and that the main distinction between Obama and Clinton is that "we felt that Barack is committed to taking that issue on early in his administration."


obamaillinois3.jpgAlthough Clinton is admired in Illinois, Obama's popularity is strong among women in the state, said Sandra Finley, president and CEO of the League of Black Women, a Chicago-based national organization that fosters the leadership potential of African-American women.


She predicts that he'll do well in Illinois because he has done well in previous primaries.  Obama won South Carolina and Iowa and came in a close second in New Hampshire.

 

"He's had the advantage of time to answer the questions," Finley said.
Before the other primary contests, women wondered whether Obama was true presidential timber, she said.

 

"They now know that he is," she said.


They also wondered if the Obama, who could become the first African American Democratic party nominee for president, would address their interests on health care, the economy and education.

 

"He answers that," she said.


Tim Wright, a Chicago attorney, a former Clinton White House appointee and former chief of staff to Congressman Bobby Rush, argued that the New York senator is going to do better in Illinois than the polls and pundits predict.


"She's not a stranger here,” he said.  “She's from here. She's a native daughter."


And because Clinton is from the state, Illinois is no different from the rest of the nation, with family members are split in their support between Obama and the former first lady.


One of the nation's wealthiest families, the Hyatt Hotel's Pritzkers, is split between Obama and Clinton.

 

Penny Pritzker is Obama's national finance chair. Her brother, J.B. Pritzker is national co-chair for the Clinton campaign. The Rev. Jesse L. Jackson and his son, Congressman Jesse L. Jackson, Jr. have endorsed Obama, while the civil right's leader's wife, Jackie, and their

son, businessman Yusef Jackson, are Clinton supporters.

 

Wright has had to deal with his own personal conflict between the two camps.


"I'm caught in the middle,” said Wright, who is on the Clinton steering committee but has acted as an Obama mentor in the past. “It's like a family feud." "It's a toss-up for a brother."


Contributing to her performance here will be a greater share of the black vote than is expected, because Obama has avoided talking about hard core black issues. "Hillary talks about them more than he does," Wright said.


Professor Starks disagreed. "The Clinton people will be lucky if they get 20 percent of the black vote," he said.

 

 

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