Moses J. Newson
Updated June 1 2015
What if during America’s Civil War President Abraham Lincoln had headed a government legally loaded with confederate officials and his Union army had included thousands of confederate loyalists.
Under that scenario, the confederates seeking by any means – violent and diplomatic – to overthrow the central government, would have had access to the intelligence, weapons, training, funds, etc., available to Lincoln.
HELLoooo war-wracked Iraq.
Make Iraq’s elected Shiite-led government representing the country’s population majority Lincoln’s government; make the nation’s second largest group, the Sunnis, the confederates seeking to overthrow the central government.
Although this reality is largely played down, it will be a major factor for the historically important coalition President Barack Obama has put together when it or (like it or not) Iran mounts serious boots-on-the ground attacks to defeat Sunni-led Islamic State (ISIL)
The big question: Are Sunni coalition nations fearful enough of ISIL to do what is required?
Iraq’s Kurds, the nation’s third largest population group, have fought valiantly against ISIL but they don’t have the manpower to turn the tide. They’re more effective than Iraq’s army because they don’t have a lot of Sunnis in their ranks.
President George W. Bush invaded Iraq in 2003 without any credible intelligence that Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, so it follows that international inspectors didn’t find any.
Because all Sunnis in Iraq are not disloyal to the central government, even some in the Sunni strongholds of Anbar Province and surrounding areas, for a bit of distinction, label the Hussein loyalists hSunnis.
Sadly, it was the Bush administration that in 2007 while U.S. troops were in tough fighting alongside Shiite soldiers seeking to snuff out an insurrection by hSunnis, the Bush administration inexplicably switched sides.
It started paying $300 monthly to about 100,000 hSunni fighters/supporters, mostly in Anbar Province, to stop fighting. That was a trust killer for Shiite leaders.
During this period a “surge” of 28,000 to 35,000 U.S. troops was credited with military achievements more than 150,000 couldn’t produce. Surge story sellers usually don’t mention those multi-million dollar payoffs to battlefield foes.
But questionable things didn’t stop with the cash deal. Over bitter objections of then Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government, the Bush administration insisted that hSunnis who had virtually boycotted the election won by the Shiites, be awarded many key civilian and security/military positions.
Still, the hSunnis continued attacking Shiite civilians (markets, etc.) and security forces, usually by bombings. That violence continues. At some point the government had a responsibility to its citizens to try and curb the violence.
This space noted months ago in a piece headlined “Ousting Iraq PM won’t pacify Sunnis” because hSunnis, more than anything else, desperately want to regain the minority control they held for ages until Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein was killed. New PM Haider al-Abadi has kept al-Maliki on the team.
For some strange reason, the Obama administration and the West have continued acting as if all the hSunnis want is fair treatment.
The result has been disastrous. hSunnis in their majority Sunni home areas where ISIL gobbled up critical territory and cities, betrayed their government and thus aided ISIL.
When new Defense Secretary Ash Carter lists things given to Iraqi troops he says don’t have the “will to fight,” he ignores an important one: assurance that some of those hSunni soldiers Iraq was untimely forced to include in its army wont shoot them in the back.
As odd as it may seem, the first part of President Obama’s desire to “degrade and destroy” ISIL could get a major boost as anti-Islamic State forces start taking down the Iraq invaders.
That’s because many of the hSunni warriors now associated with ISIL in Sunni dominated territory, will be in the line of fire as enemies of the pro-government contingents.
A few things to keep in mind as Iraqi events and discussions unfold:
— thousands upon thousands of U.S. troops on the ground in Vietnam, Korea and Iraq never accomplished the expected.
of the world’s billion-plus Muslims 85-90 percent reportedly are Sunnis
among majority Shiite Iraq’s neighbors just Iran and Bahrain are majority Shiite
there wasn’t a lot of joy among Iraq’s neighbor nations when it held a democratic-type election because they are run mostly by royalty or some form of dictatorship.
Moses Newson is a prize winning journalist and former executive editor of the AFRO.